Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is discussing a potential threat to his life with U.S. lawmakers. He’s linking this risk to his pursuit of a major deal with the U.S. and Israel, which includes normalizing Saudi-Israeli relations.
MBS has mentioned Anwar Sadat, the Egyptian leader killed after making peace with Israel, asking about U.S. protection measures. He’s also discussed threats he faces to explain why any deal must include a path to a Palestinian state, especially given the heightened Arab anger towards Israel due to the Gaza war.
These conversations, described by sources who wished to remain anonymous, suggest MBS is committed to the deal despite the risks, seeing it as vital for Saudi Arabia’s future.
The developing pact reportedly includes U.S. security guarantees, aid for a civilian nuclear program, and economic investments for Saudi Arabia. In return, Saudi Arabia would limit its dealings with China and establish ties with Israel.
However, MBS is frustrated by Israel’s unwillingness to include a credible path to a Palestinian state. He’s emphasized the importance of addressing this issue for his position as keeper of Islam’s holy sites and for regional stability.
Initially, I was skeptical about MBS’s concerns, given his alleged involvement in Jamal Khashoggi’s death and past reports of his indifference to the Palestinian cause. However, I’ve come to see his framing as a clever diplomatic strategy to pressure U.S. officials to push Israel towards a deal he favors.
Arguing that one’s life is at risk for a potentially historic deal is certainly attention-grabbing. It’s also likely true, given the dangers of peacemaking in the Middle East.
Dennis Ross, a veteran Middle East negotiator, sees it as MBS’s way of emphasizing the deal’s significance and justifying his demands.
Saudi representatives were hesitant to discuss the crown prince’s conversations. However, a senior Saudi official stated that MBS believes resolving the Palestinian issue is crucial for regional security and stability, and thus for reaping the deal’s benefits.
This aligns with descriptions of MBS as a Saudi nationalist who supports the Palestinian cause when it benefits Saudi Arabia.
The potential deal could significantly change the Middle East, notably by uniting Israel and Saudi Arabia against Iran. Whether it succeeds remains to be seen, but MBS’s strategy of highlighting personal risk adds a compelling dimension to the negotiations.
Given the electoral timeline and need for Senate approval, the deal won’t happen soon. But I expect either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to pursue it if elected president in November.
When Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, many thought the grand bargain was over. As Gaza’s death toll rose to about 40,000, including civilians and militants, Arab citizens protested what they saw as Israeli atrocities. This added to existing anger over Israel’s long occupation of Palestinian lands.
Surprisingly, key players didn’t abandon the deal, seeing it as crucial for regional stability. But some offers had to change.
Before Oct. 7, negotiators included Palestinian leaders in discussions. A Biden official told me small concessions might have satisfied the Saudis then. Now, they demand “a clear, irreversible path” to a Palestinian state.
MBS, though autocratic, cares about public opinion. The Palestinian issue affects his support among young Saudis who back his reforms.
“He has a young population energized by this major Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” a second Biden official said.
But Netanyahu vows never to allow a Palestinian state, as do his far-right coalition members. Most Israelis oppose it after Hamas killed 1,200 people on Oct. 7.
Outside pressure, even from Biden, hasn’t changed Netanyahu’s stance on Gaza’s future or the broader Palestinian issue.
An Israeli official commented: “The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel are interested in a deal covering U.S.-Saudi issues and Israel-Saudi normalization. But certain conditions aren’t currently in place.”
It’s unclear if MBS’s risk-taking will convince Netanyahu to do the same. Another peace-seeking leader assassinated was Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.
Still, MBS and the U.S. hope Netanyahu will consider Israel’s long-term interests, not just the current trauma.